SC Yellow Dogs

Aiken County has long been predominantly Republican, but a formal survey has found that more young people age 18 to 29 are moving toward the Democratic Party.
There’s only one problem with that, said Dr. Bob Botsch, a USC Aiken political science professor who coordinates a community survey each year.
“Let’s distinguish between the general population and those who vote,” he said. “Even if the Democrats have the majority of those under 30, that group is the least likely to vote, although they did a little better in the last presidential election.”
Students in Botsch’s research methods class perform the annual survey as part of their course experience.
Based on telephone calls, the survey included 37 questions on national issues, seeking opinions, party identification and demographic information.
President George Bush’s popularity has plummeted nationally, but not quite as much in Aiken County. Nationally, 64 percent of Americans disapprove of his job as president, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. Only 47 percent don’t approve of his performance in Aiken. Yet that’s still higher than the 40 percent who do approve.
Over the past decade, Botsch said, Bush and Bill Clinton let some key openings pass them by. Without Clinton’s personal morality issues, Al Gore probably would have won the 2000 election and would have cemented those who were moving toward the Democratic Party.
“Bush had the same historical opportunities because of 9/11,” Botsch said. “Unfortunately for the Republicans and the country, Iraq hasn’t turned out so well. We have another flawed, if not failing president and perhaps another opportunity blown.”
About 55 percent of those Aiken County residents polled said the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war for, while 38 percent said the decision to go to war was appropriate. The numbers in the national poll differed only slightly. Botsch said in his report that views on the war are strongly related to views on Bush’s job performance.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Aiken County survey indicates that 35 percent of those polled will vote Republican, compared to 32 percent Democratic. Another 18 percent aren’t sure which primary they will vote in, and 15 percent said they don’t intend to vote.
But survey questions are often skewed by the “good intentions” factor, Botsch wrote in the survey report. Turnout in primary elections is usually about 30 percent of eligible voters, so many more people actually won’t vote even though they said they would.
Typically, Republicans tend to vote more than Democrats, so the numbers in January should be higher for the GOP than in the survey. Still, Botsch said residents seem unusually interested in the Democratic primary.
Hillary Clinton enjoyed a 35 percent to 23 percent edge over Barack Obama in the poll for those intending to vote in that primary, with John Edwards third at 16 percent. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson led a wide-open vote with 16 and 15 percent. Since the survey was taken, however, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have topped the Iowa caucus polls. Results from Iowa and New Hampshire could impact results in Aiken County and South Carolina.

The Aiken Standard